Yes, the Car Chip Shortage Is Getting Better: Updated for 2022

February 10, 2021
Written by: Zach Shefska
Categories: Car Buying

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Chip Shortage Update 1/24/22

The headline on Automotive News this morning reads, “The chip shortage is back for Year 2” … Sadly, we have bad news to deliver this week. So far this year 187,200 vehicles have been taken out of production. An increase of 38,000 vehicles week-over-week. That number is significantly down from the prior week.

Region2022 YEAR TO DATELAST WEEKCHANGE
Europe59,60070,800-11,200
South America48,30041,5006,800
North America36,00036,900-900
China*26,900026,900
Rest of Asia*16,400016,400
Middle East/ Africa*000
Total187,200149,20038,000

Where we saw a more meaningful increase was in the annual projection. That increased to over 900,000 vehicles that are expected to be lost this year due to the chip shortage. Frustratingly, AutoForecast solutions increased the North America projection by over 100,000 vehicles, while reducing Europe and Asia signifigantly.

Region2022 PROJECTEDLAST WEEKCHANGE
Europe220,400331,000-110,600
South America210,30043,200167,100
North America291,700186,000105,700
China*138,300108,10030,200
Rest of Asia*34,000156,600-122,600
Middle East/ Africa*10,0008,0002,000
Total904,700832,80071,900

Chip Shortage Update 1/17/22

Another week, another chip shortage update. Unfortunately, the projections we received from AutoForecast Solutions paint a more realistic, albeit worse chip shortage scenario than just seven days prior.

This past week 101,900 vehicles were taken out of production, up from 47,300 the prior week.

Region2022 YEAR TO DATELAST WEEKCHANGE
Europe70,80023,60047,200
South America41,50013,80027,700
North America36,9009,80027,100
China*000
Rest of Asia*000
Middle East/ Africa*000
Total149,20047,300101,900

AutoForecast Solutions not only tracks the actual number of vehicles lost to production each week from the chip shortage, they also update a projection for the total number of vehicles they anticipate being lost from production for the entire year. Interestingly, even thought 101,900 vehicles were lost to production this past week, AutoForecast Solutions only increased their projection for the entire year by 65,100 units.

Region2022 PROJECTEDLAST WEEKCHANGE
Europe331,000280,80050,200
South America43,20031,40011,800
North America186,000174,30011,700
China*108,100108,200-100
Rest of Asia*156,600163,000-6,400
Middle East/ Africa*8,00010,000-2,000
Total832,800767,70065,100

The only justification for this would be that they think the actual losses each week will decline from here on out, or more likely, they’ll simply continue to increase their total projected losses. We saw this last year when their projections went from 500,000 to more than 11 million over the course of the year.

We did get bad news this week from Volkswagen and Toyota. Both companies announced that their plants in Tianjin, China were closed due to pandemic reasons. Toyota annually produces 620,000 vehicles at this production facility, so this will certainly be a story worth keeping our eyes on.

Chip Shortage Update 1/10/22

The chip shortage that has plagued automakers for well over a year now appears to be abating. In December of 2021 we measured the slowest increases in expected losses of production as a result of the chip shortage we had all year (around 20,000 vehicles). For the entire year automakers globally lost 10.2 million vehicles from production because of the chip shortage.

Asian auto plants were the hardest hit, with more than 3.6 million vehicles taken out of production. North America was second with nearly 3.1 million vehicles lost, and Europe was third, with approximately 3 million vehicles lost.

What have we seen so far in 2022? Data from AutoForecast Solutions (which is the most consistently updated and reported on data source) shows us that production cuts so far have been relatively small.

Region2022 YEAR TO DATE2022 PROJECTED
North America9,800174,300
Europe23,600280,800
China0108,200
Rest of Asia0163,000
South America13,80031,400
Middle East/Africa010,000
Total47,300767,700
Source: AutoForecast Solutions Inc.

After the industry cut 10.2 million vehicles in 2021, AutoForecast Solutions only projects 767,700 vehicles lost this year. That’s fascinating, because another well respected firm, Boston Consulting Group published a report on the semiconductor shortage and its impacts on the auto industry just three weeks ago.

Boston-Consulting-Group-Automotive-Supply-Shortfalls
Boston Consulting Group automotive production shortfalls per year

As you can see, BCG expects automakers to lose 7-8 million units of production this year, as compared to the 10 million lost last year. However the more recent data from AutoForecast Solutions tells a completely different story (less than 1 million vehicles lost).

Who’s right? It’s impossible to know. That being said, the headlines from Toyota and other automakers does make it seem like production is ramping back up. We’ll continue to update this page weekly as we get more data on the ongoing chip and car shortage. Be sure to subscribe to our newsletter to get updates.

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Do electric vehicles require more chips?

Boston-Consulting-Group-EV-Car-Chip-Costs
Boston Consulting Group average semiconductor costs per vehicle

Within the report BCG published there is fascinating data on the cost of semiconductors per vehicle manufactured. BOM stands for “bill of materials”. ADAS is advanced driver assistance systems, and EV stands for electric vehicle.

As you can, a “basic” vehicle with a combustion engine and no ADAS has a total cost of $535 for semiconductors. A combustion engine vehicle with ADAS costs $765, and an EV with ADAS costs nearly $1,100.

The cost of semiconductors, and the number of semiconductors within a vehicle continues to increase as more functionality and features make their way into our cars.

Chip Shortage Update 12/20/21

It appears that the worst of the 2021 chip shortage is behind us (at least for the automotive industry that is). Data provided by AutoForecast Solutions tracks the weekly ebbs and flows of chip related production cuts, and for the first time since starting their weekly projections, the worst case scenario for vehicles that will be cut from manufacturer’s production schedules this year because of the microchip crisis declined by 20,000 units.

Two weeks ago, for the first time in over a year, the weekly projection for vehicles lost in production due to the chip shortage did not increase at all. This week it declined. This is great news!

This week, for the third week in a row, the projection for vehicles lost due to the chip shortage for North American factories, actually decreased week-over-week!

This page will be updated as new information becomes available regarding the semiconductor chip shortage of 2021.

Are we nearing the end of the chip shortage?

Automakers have taken a major hit as a result of the chip shortage. Profits at Subaru, GM, Ford, and nearly every other major OEM have been down significantly in 2021. That being said, starting in the November, each company began signaling that they were through the worst of the chip shortage and that things would slowly start to get better.

Each week we track data provided by AutoForecast Solutions on the chip shortage. Their data shows a plateau happening.

DateProjected # of vehicles lostChange from prior week
9/139,436,000
9/209,574,000138,000
9/2710,150,000576,000
10/410,305,000155,000
10/1110,561,000256,000
10/1810,842,000281,000
10/2510,943,000101,000
11/110,983,03540,035
11/811,002,00018,965
11/1511,263,000261,000
11/2211,285,00022,000
11/2911,285,0000
12/611,323,98038,980
12/1311,325,1981,218
12/2011,309,400-15,798

The table above shows the projected number of vehicles lost because of the chip shortage. Each week AutoForecast Solutions updates this number to reflect the current state of the industry. As you can see the rate at which they have been increasing the total number of lost vehicles is slowing down. This week the projections even decreased.

It was a little over a month ago that the projection increased by 261,000 vehicles globally. Since then, we’ve seen a plateau. It appears that the worst-case scenario for the chip shortage is behind us.

What impact has the chip shortage had on new car supply?

Chip Shortage Update 10/26/21

Every automaker has drastically cut back production of their new vehicles as a result of the chip shortage. “Days supply” is an industry metric that is used to measure how much inventory a dealership has in stock relative to demand. Each manufacturer is experiencing a dwindling days supply of inventory. This means dealerships are less likely to discount or negotiate.

ManufacturerDays Supply (April)Days Supply (May)Days Supply (Oct)Days Supply (Nov)
Ford45343837
Lincoln56363029
Acura53501919
Honda56431917
Genesis74574033
Hyundai49411211
Kia34301512
Mazda44381310
Subaru241654
Toyota26231721
Volvo55453027
Days supply of inventory

With a shortage of new vehicles, we have seen skyrocketing used car prices. Wholesale used car vehicle prices have increased nearly 40% so far in 2021. As of October, retail used car prices are up nearly 30%

inventory levels broken down by state

Inventory levels are down across all 50 states. There are some regions of the country that have more inventory than others, and some brands have weathered the storm better than their peers. We created a complete guide on how inventory levels have changed state-by-state to help you navigate finding inventory near you. If you do buy a car out of state, be sure to reference this guide for buying a car from a different state.

Buying a car in this market? Let us help you get a fair deal!

So far automakers have lost nearly 10 million vehicles as a result of the chip shortage. The expectation is that the total loss from the chip shortage will reach 11 million by the end of 2021.

Chip shortage effect on cars October 2021
The latest update from Automotive News on October 25th, 2021

Chip Shortage Update 5/26/21

What manufacturers are cutting back production?

It is estimated that up to 5 million new vehicles will not be produced in 2021 as a result of the chip shortage. Current lost production by manufacturer is below.

ManufacturerLost production
Ford324,616
General Motors277,966
Stellantis252,193
Subaru45,272
Volkswagen45,215
Honda42,951
Nissan41,928
Toyota23,670
Tesla6,418
Mazda6,133
COMPAS4,200
Hyundai2,548
Volvo1,287
Lost vehicle production

Brands impacted so far:

  • Ford – Especially their new 2021 Ford F-150
  • Toyota – Especially their 2021 Tundra
  • Nissan
  • Honda
  • Mazda
  • Subaru
  • Stellantis which includes
    • Chrysler
    • Dodge
    • Fiat
  • VW Group which includes
    • VW
    • Audi
    • Porsche

Kia announced at NADA that they will not be limiting production as a result of the chip shortage.

What impact is the chip shortage having on vehicle prices?

From Black Book, “We are hearing more each week in the market about reduced inventory in the pipeline for Q1.With new car manufacturing facing supply chain struggles due to the microchip shortage, as well as a possible additional round of stimulus, the expectation is that pricing will remain strong throughout Q1 and into Q2.”

Other data from Black Book shows a recent increase in wholesale used car prices. As a result of limited new car supply we are seeing used car prices increase as well.

Chip Shortage Update 5/26/21

When will the chip shortage end?

In a recent interview with Jean-Marc Chery, the CEO of STMicroelectronics for Automotive News, the executive was asked this very question. His response, “Our forecast is that we should start seeing an improvement to the overall situation in the first quarter of 2022.”

No one knows for certain, but many representatives from the largest semiconductor companies have provided guidance that production increases will not meet demand until Q3 of 2021 at the earliest.

From Reuters, “TSMC, the world’s top contract chipmaker, said it was “expediting” auto-related products through its wafer fabs and reallocating wafer capacity. It now expects to lift capital spending on the production and development of advanced chips to between $25-28 billion this year, as much as 60% higher than the amount it spent in 2020.”

Can I still get a good car deal?

Yes. The tactics used before the global chip shortage to negotiate a good car deal still apply today. Will you be able to purchase a vehicle at a similar discount compared to a month ago? No. Will you be able to negotiate a fair deal based on the current market conditions? Yes.

Is now a good time to sell my car?

Yes. Used car wholesale prices are just beginning to climb after 20 weeks of declines. If you have a vehicle that you are looking to sell we strongly recommend you get a quote from Carvana, Vroom, and CarMax. Take the highest quote you receive to your local dealership and ask them to beat it. If they don’t, sell it to the highest bidder.

We anticipate that wholesale used car prices will continue to rise for the coming weeks and months. With that in mind, you may want to get a quote today for your vehicle and then wait ~4 weeks to see if it has appreciated more.

My lease is coming due, should I buy it out?

Most likely yes. If your lease is coming due over the following 2-4 months it is likely that you will be in the rare position of having “positive equity” in your vehicle. Because used car prices are increasing, it may make sense to purchase your vehicle at the residual value set 3 years ago.

Chip Shortage Update 3/3/21

One month after we first reported on AutoForecast Solutions projected decrease in new vehicle supply, not much has changed. Many auto manufacturers are still continuing to face supply shortfalls (not enough semiconductors) to produce all of their inventory. Ford recently increased their production cuts, directly impacting the Ford Edge and Lincoln Nautilus. The total expected shortfall in new vehicles for 2021 for all automakers is projected at 1.6 million units.

General Motors announced on 3/3/21 that “it was further extending production cuts at three North American plants and adding a fourth to the list of factories hit by the global semiconductor chip shortage.”

“The extended cuts do not change GM’s forecast last month that the shortage could shave up to $2 billion from this year’s earnings. GM CFO Paul Jacobson subsequently said chip supplies should return to normal rates by the second half of the year and he was confident the profit hit would not worsen.”

Update 2/15/21: Lost production as a result of the ongoing chip shortage has totaled 680,350 vehicles. AutoForecast Solutions has increased their forecast from 1 million to 1.3 million vehicles that will not be produced in 2021 as a result of semiconductor shortage.

So far lost production is approximately 564,000 units with the prospect of almost 1 million total vehicles not being produced this year because of the existing and ongoing semiconductor chip shortage. AutoForecast Solutions

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12 Comments

  1. Debbie Arvio

    Hey guys want to tank you for all you do!
    I do have a question and don’t know if this is the spot I post it to? I have never seen this addressed, but maybe I missed it.
    I am looking for a 2015 toyota venza limited AWD. I would love a 2016 venza redwood but it’s the last venza made by Toyota and it was only made in Canada. I’m from Illinois and when I do find a 2015 limited with low miles they always seem to be on the west coast and no one there wants to deal with it. How do I go about getting one of the 2 cars ?

    Thank you for your time,
    Debbie Arvio

    Reply
    • M. Ferro

      When you have to look far and wide for the exact model etc, your best bets are national chains, such as carvana and carmax. You will pay shipping, of course, but they make the entire process easier than doing it all on your own.

      Reply
  2. George Maderski

    My NY registration expires today, 3/21/21. I moved to Ct. Can I sell my car in Ct after this expiration date?

    Reply
  3. Diane S

    would it be better to wait till next year to buy a brand new car?

    Reply
  4. R Sriceso

    What if the new 2021 vehicle you want is not a popular model (and not an SUV/truck), rumored to be updated soon and the dealer stock is limited because of these two factors?

    I’m looking at a car recently on the lot (past couple of weeks) where some of the same model are on the lot for over 100 days. The Market Price Report doesn’t work for this make either, since it seems like the new cars for the brand are consistently listed at MSRP per the manufacturer’s guidance.

    How should I approach this type of deal?

    Reply
    • Zach Shefska

      As always we recommend requesting the out the door price and negotiating from there!

      Reply
  5. Rene L

    Would increased prices also affect a factory order that’s negotiated down to the invoice price? My lease ends in September and my plan was to factory order in July

    Reply
  6. Jeff

    In 2018 I bought a new Honda Civic EX for $20,250. Yesterday the dealership bought it back for $19,531. I’m loving this chip shortage!

    Reply
  7. John Regus

    What is the best way to negotiate the price of a new fully loaded with the prestige package ($8200) Genesis G80 2.5, wait until 2022? I had read that the best price to shoot for is to add 3% over dealer invoice because the dealer would make $1600 over what the dealer acquired the car for plus the manufacturer still will be paying the dealer 3% in holdback fees (I googled what the holdback is for Genesis and I saw 3%). What do you think of using a invoice price plus $1000. They say no but I bring up the 3% holdback fee. So what do you say about this tactic?

    Reply
  8. Doug Colton

    I was just at a local Hyundai Dealership and they have “Two” window stickers on their cars. One is the original manufacturer window sticker with the MSRP and a second one is on the front windshield adding $2,999.99 to the MSRP.
    The salesperson told me the was increase was put on the vehicle by the manufacturer due to the vehicle shortage. I’m calling this a Dealership Rip-Off!!!

    Reply
    • Zach Shefska

      Doug, can you take a photo and share that with us? zach@joinyaa.com is my email. Thanks, that would be super helpful.

      Reply

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